Insights
Will a Ceasefire Remain Elusive? Assessing Negotiation Readiness in Russia-Ukraine War
Marat Atnashev
In the shadow of war, why has a ceasefire in Ukraine remained so elusive? Explore the complexities of negotiation readiness, clashing BATNAs, and the geopolitical dilemmas shaping the path to peace.
Between 1946 and 2005, 21 percent of all interstate wars concluded with a military victory for one side, 30 percent with a ceasefire agreement, 16 percent with a peace agreement and the remainder ended without a definitive victory or negotiated resolution. Given that nearly half of all interstate wars conclude with some form of negotiated settlement, the question arises: Why has a ceasefire, let alone a peace agreement, remained so elusive in the Russo-Ukrainian War? Is it because interstate wars that cross the one-year threshold of continuous fighting extend to over a decade on average, as data shows? Or is it because the war has not yet entered the stage of a “mutually hurting stalemate” when both parties experience suffering and believe they are unable to escalate their way to victory?